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Pam was so Big she.....



Cyclone Pam was a monster Category 5 storm. It had peak winds of 185 MPH and waves that would crash over a four story building. The barometer fell to 915, the storm's 'eye' was 2o miles across across, the total low pressure area was millions of square miles. The islands of Vanuatu got whacked hard.

Okay, this was a big one. One for the books. But I was amazed to learn that Pam had the power to change the climate on a large part of the globe for at least the next twelve months.

Based on information just released, a significant global weather pattern change is either upon us today or will will be in a matter of weeks. As the consequences of Pam unfold, tens of millions of people will be affected one way or the other.

Sound like Tin Foil Hat stuff? Maybe. We shall see - in the very near future.

The Australian Government Meteorological Office blew my mind surprised me with this comment (Link):

As a result of severe tropical cyclone Pam in the southern hemisphere, and tropical storm Bavi (category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale) in the northern hemisphere, a strong reversal of the trade winds occurred in the equatorial Pacific just west of the Date Line. This is likely to initiate a downwelling Kelvin Wave and subsequent warming in the ocean sub-surface and potentially surface.

What does that mean? It means that there is, all of a sudden, a very high probability that an El Nino is right around the corner.

Consider this chart released today by the Aussies. Note the average of the forecast models goes into the orange (El Nino territory) in April.



Now look at the same chart from a month ago. The timing and relative strength of the ENSO cycle has increased. The change in outlook is attributable to Pam.



Consider what the models were saying 30 days ago regarding expectations for May. Note that only Model ECMWF predicted an upturn in ocean temperatures:



The following chart, also from today shows the estimates for the month of April (for the period 30 days before the prior slide), yet it shows a rapidly growing consensus for El Nino.



The following is the most recent report for June. All models are now in El Nino. This is an additional indications of how rapid the coming change will be.



Finally is the most recent estimate for August, 2015 - just four months from today. Note that model ECMWF (prior winner) is suggesting a very strong 2.0 El Nino. All of the models are lined up - An El Nin0 event is now 100% certain to happen (if you believe models).



Suppose this comes true - what are the implications? A strong El Nino would result in above average rainfall in the entire Pacific West. It would also relieve the more serious drought conditions now occurring in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

If you believe in any of this you might consider one of the following:

-Buy flood insurance if you live in California.

-Buy lift tickets and rent lodges at the West Coast ski resorts now - tons of snow next winter will cause prices to soar.

-Buy Vail stock.

-Buy cheap/dry farmland in California - it might pop with the rain.

-Buy lake front property on Lake Mead (today the water is hundreds of yards away).

-If you're an insurance company you should raise the rates on California flood insurance (or buy reinsurance).

- Buy the stock of Brazilian hydroelectric companies that today have no water to make juice.

-Short coffee beans - (The Brazil crop will be bumper next year)

-Sell insurance company stocks who underwrite homeowners in California (even if they raise rates)

-Municipalities in West Coast flood prone areas should make some preparations. These changes will happen in a matter of months.



Okay, that stuff is a bit silly. My point is that many things will change if the rains return to California and Brazil. We shall know soon enough if a significant change in weather patterns is in the offing. But assume that this does play out as the meteorologists are now forecasting. What this means is that a big storm in the Pacific, at just the right time and place, can knock global weather into a new loop. Pam was a random event that may have lasting and significant results. The butterfly flapped its wings, there will be broad, unforeseen consequences.

If science can't predict random events that change weather in significant ways on a month to month basis how can those same scientists predict, with such precision, what will happen in fifty-years?