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Gilead's shares will reach $120 by 07.11.2015
11 june 2015

Gilead Sciences (GILD), a large US biotechnology company specialized in developing and commercializing new innovative products to treat HIV, hepatitis and the flu, recently held an investor meeting, at which it outlined the following growth drivers:

-The company continues to deliver double-digit growth. Revenue increased by 51.9% y-o-y, outstripping forecasts by 10.2%. Revenue was driven by antiviral drugs (+56% y-o-y), among which demand Harvoni (production of the drug was launched in 2015) was in the greatest demand. Sales of other drugs rose 15% y-o-y. Quarterly adjusted EPS spiked 98.6% y-o-y, outpacing expectations by 26.7%.

-Gilead paid a USD 0.43 dividend for the first time, matching a 1.7% yield. The company aggressively buys back its own shares, having spent USD 3 bn for this purpose in the reporting period. The company announced a new buyback program totaling USD 15 bn in April.

In addition to Harvoni, the company plans to market a number of new drugs. Launch of the following new products is expected soon: Cobicistat (HIV, approved in the US and Europe), Elvitegravir (HIV, approved in the US and Europe), Idelalisib (cancer, approved in Europe and the US), Ranolazine (cardiovascular disease, phase 3 trials)and a number of other drugs, which are in phase 2 and 3 clinical trials and should be approved in the second half of 2014.

The company expands its business by taking over new companies. Gilead recently announced acquisition of EpiTherapeutics (developer of drugs to treat cancer based on epigenetics) for USD 65 mn. This acquisition will expand the ability of Gilead to treat this type of diseases and positively affect the company’s financial results. According to the company’s forecast, revenue is expected to reach USD 28-29 bn (up 4-8%) in 2015, the previous figure was USD 26-29. Grossmarginwillamountto 87-90%.

We believe the company will continue to improve its financial performance due to the launch of new products and the acquisition of new assets. These factors, along with a share buyback and generous dividends will boost the company’s shares in the mid-term.

We left our mid-term fundamental valuation of the name unchanged at 122. The short-term technical target is USD 120.

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Gilead's shares will reach $120 by 07.11.2015

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