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Hugo in HTO Trading,

EURUSD: Bearish momentum resurges after FOMC minutes

FOMC minutes showed the Federal Reserve is concerned about disinflation as are other central banks did. Overall a pessimistic stench in the report, but the feeling is that the Fed is saying they will not hike rates soon.

Fed minutes have been released without any surprise, members debated moving toward a normalized interest rate policy but the majority of members supported the current zero interest rate language as it gave them more flexibility if economic date (inflation expectations especially) turned sour.

Today on the economic calendar we have from the EU the Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Services PMI, both are estimated to rise showing some signs of economy expansion. From the US we have the consumer price index in October that is expected to fall from 1.7% to 1.6% reflecting that inflation is not increasing and the FED may not raise the interest rates any time soon.

EURUSD initially tried to rally during yesterday session but found enough resistance at 1.2600 to turn thing back around and closing near the open of the day, making a shooting star pattern.

Expecting downward move to 1.2389 (scenario 1) on a break below previous day low at 1.2511 or a bounce off the Fibonacci retracement at 1.2622 could push the pair back down to 1.2482 (scenario 2).