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USD/JPY - Should We Consider Catching this Falling Knife?

Well, the saying goes that we should not try to catch a falling knife. Someone also said picking bottoms give you stinky fingers. I tend to agree. If we look at the daily chart, the USD/JPY is falling sharply, kind of like a falling knife. 

USD/JPY Daily Chart 8/21
(click to enlarge)

Bulls might be exhausted at this point. From a fundamental point of view, the market has traded a rate hike by the FOMC in Q3/Q4 of 2015. We are seeing a good chance that the FOMC will delay this rate hike and therefore, the USD has been sliding recently. The Japanese yen has also been strong across the board. This could partly be attributed to risk aversion. 

Looking at the daily chart, I would not try to catch the current knife-like action. Instead, if price does slow down around 120.00. I will start looking for signs. For me, the ideal situation is that the pair will consolidate in the short-term, give me a bullish divergence with the RSI, and an intra-day bullish breakout. It would be much harder to catch a bullish attempt if it were the type we saw in July, where price action makes a sharp reversal without "warnings" or technical clues. 

Now, if I were to put in some kind of limit order, I would put it close to the 118.33 low, perhaps 118.50. With a small position I wouldn't mind risking it here even if there are no intra-day signs of a bullish attempt yet. However, if intra-day price action starts to accelerate towards 118.33-118.50, I would remove that order and stay on the sidelines.

I have not considered shorting USD/JPY yet and this is likely going to cause some missed opportunities. However, I still have the bullish bias, and the fundamental and technical changes recently have not convinced me that the USD/JPY should be bearish other than in the short-term.

I might need a break below 120 to inspire me to consider the bearish outlook.