Baerrus Magnus
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Baerrus Magnus in Options Trader; hang out at http://optionsforum.net,

Reply to CELG - Evolution of a Trade on Tue, 17 Mar 2015 00:05:48 GMT

My CELG position in March Calls continues to evolve. I mentioned that I had Celgene long calls opened earlier. I thought it could be interesting to trace how this position changed and why. In other words, what is the trader's sentiment at each adjustment. What they think and how it causes them to make new trades morphing a simple directional position into a complex neutral position. The chart below shows what goes on with CELG price all that time. Basically - no much.

March 3, BOT 3 CELG Mar-20-15 117.00 call @ 3.25, 13 trading days to expiration, sentiment very Bullish

March 5, SLD 3 CELG Mar-20-15 121.00 call @ 2.91, 11 trading days to expiration, still Bullish

The combined position now is a CELG March 117/121 Call Bull Spread. The initial debit, which is the amount at risk, is reduced to $0.28 per share. This accomplishes my key objective of chipping away at my risk. The "cost" of this adjustment is now my reward is no longer unlimited. I sold my upside and cannot make more than $4 from this trade.. But with only 11 trading sessions left, I am happy to do so as time is running fast and options are getting wasted away.

Note, that the alternative, that many traders would take at this point, is to simply close March 117 calls trading at ~ $4. A 23% profit.

The stock continues to meander between $118 and $121

March 16, SLD 3 CELG Mar-20-15 120/124 Call Vertical @ 1.43, 4 trading days to expiration, Neutral

The combined position now morphed into a Condor CELG March Calls 117/ 120 / 121 /124. So I own a Condor with a cost basis of -$1.09 (credit) with a profit range between 117 to 124.
When a long option I own has little time remaining, my primary objective is to get Theta positive asap. In other words, sell enough options to offset time decay of my long options position. My secondary targets are still reducing my risk and...Did I mention reducing my risk?

Now owning a Condor I have no more adjustments available to me that could be done for a credit. So if the stock runs above $124 I am probably not going to do anything closing the position for next to zero. Alternatively, if the stock drops below $117 tomorrow (with 3 days left) I might buy back my short CELG options for what hopefully is very agreeable prices. Then sit back and hope for snap back move up where I could possibly sell them again. If the stock, as I expect, continues to do nothing, then I am a happy camper collecting some profit from the condor on expiration.