Alexander Valtsev
All posts from Alexander Valtsev
Alexander Valtsev in Alexander Valtsev,

Here Is A Great Options Trade In Seres Therapeutics In Short-Term

Shares of Seres Therapeutics (MCRB), a clinical-stage biotech focused on developing microbiome technology, have tumbled today, down more than 69% as of market close, on huge volume in response to the news that an important clinical study didn't go according to plan:

As a result, put options have rocketed in value all across the board:

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

Note the triple digit annual implied volatility in these options.

At Monday market open, I recommend initiating the following trade:


The above trade is essentially a calendar spread aimed at capitalizing on above-average implied volatility of the puts.

Despite the fact that these options are in-the-money (they are typically illiquid), there are volumes in these options, meaning that retail investors can trade them without abnormal transaction costs:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The proposed trade has the following risk-reward profile:


As you can see, the risk-reward ratio is 5.8:1, which is simply fantastic. As long as the stock stays above around $11.60 per share, you will make money on it. I expect the shares to bounce back in the next three weeks because I think investors have overreacted to the news. In addition, the theoretical edge of this trade is simply irresistible. 

What do you think of this trade?