Nick Nasad
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USD/JPY - What's Next as Pair Approaches Key Daily Support Trendline?

The USD/JPY does not look like a happy camper when looked at from the daily perspective.

  • In the beginning of September, the pair managed to break through an important support trendline, setting up what looked like the break of a triangle that had been forming over the previous 4 months.
  • Instead, after putting in a new high around 100.50 early on in the month, the pair retreated in favor of the JPY on the back of weaker risk sentiment over the last two weeks as traders digested the implications of a US govt shutdown, Chinese data came in softer than expected, and traders grappled with the idea that the US economy is too weak for the Fed to remove stimulus.
  • Also helping the JPY's case was an announcement during the Asian session by Japan's Prime Minister Abe that Japan will go through with an expected increase in the sales tax as scheduled, which weighed on the Nikkei and helped boost the JPY vs its rivals. 
  • The question then is, will the support trendline seen from connecting the lows from late February and mid-June support the pair at 96.75, or do we break through those lows and have a more sustained drop in the pair?
  • That would go against positioning data in the pair, which is heavy USD long, but could present the case of those longs having to cover their longs, and adding some fuel to a correction.
  • However, if the pair finds support soon, it would be a good place - from a risk/reward consideration - to look at the long side, since there is plenty of room to the upside following the last months' weakness in the USD. In other words, are we near a selling climax in the pair?
 

- Nick