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US Manufacturing PMI 'Survey' Defies Every Hard Data Print In Last 7 Weeks, Jumps To 5-Month Highs

Markit just issued the results of their Manufacturing PMI survey... and it shows everything is awesome again. Printing at 55.3 - the highest since October 2014 - it is utterly incredulous that this represents any reality as US macro data has completely collapsed in the last 2 months. Exports are down for the first time since November, but Markit is very excited, pitching deflation as good and careful to not be too sanguine about the rise for fear of sparking some Fed action...

 

Spot The Odd One Out...

 

As Markit explains,

"While economic growth looks set to disappoint again in the first quarter, with GDP set to rise by a rate perhaps slightly below the 2.2% expansion seen in the fourth quarter of last year, the upturn in order books in particular gives some reassurance that the pace of economic growth is likely to pick up as we move towards the summer.

But the punchline is...

However, the rate of expansion in manufacturing clearly remains well below the peaks seen last year, which is largely the result of exporters struggling in the face of a strong dollar. The March survey showed exports dropping for the first since November.  

And deflation as good

But the appreciation of the dollar is not all bad news. The greenback’s strength is lowering import prices, which in turned helped drive down manufacturing costs at one of the fastest rates since mid-2012. Lower inflationary pressures should help keep interest rates low for longer.” 

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