Agus Firmansyah
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EUR/USD Current price: 1.0498

The EUR/USD pair extends its endless decline, starting the week at fresh 12-year lows around 1.0470 early interbank trading. The beginning of ECB's QE last week, has sent local bond yields to record lows, even negative ones, dragging the common currency with them, whilst Greek woes continue to pent over the EZ as a Damocles' sword. Furthermore, market expectations are of a hawkish US Federal Reserve this week, with the FOMC Meeting next Wednesday. Most speculations point to the removal of the world "patient" which may trigger further dollar gains, despite being extremely overbought across the board.

In the short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price remains well below its 20 SMA, currently in the 1.0550 price zone, also quite a strong static resistance level, whilst the technical indicators remain near overbought levels. In the 4 hours chart the price continued to found sellers on approaches to a strongly bearish 20 SMA, currently in the 1.0600 area, whilst the technical indicators aim higher below their mid-lines, with the Momentum nearing 100 and the RSI still in oversold territory. A steady recovery above the 1.0500 may imply some relief and further upward corrective movements intraday, albeit sellers will be waiting at higher levels. To the downside, next strong midterm support stands at 1.0206, July 2002 monthly high, the probable bearish target should the FED convince the markets a rate hike is scheduled for this first half of 2015.

Support levels: 1.0470 1.0430 1.0400

Resistance levels: 1.0510 1.0550 1.0600