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Hugo in HTO Trading,

GBPUSD: Closing above the 10 and 50 week moving averages

The pound has spent the second half of the week firmly in positive territory after a wobbly start, with data the main focus in the UK. The currency kicked off the week by falling against major counterparts after the consumer price index (CPI) showed a drop of -0.10% in September against the market expectation of 0.00% printed in deflationary territory, however trimmed back its losses after mixed employment which showed UK employment at its highest level since records began in 1971.

The US dollar has seen volatility this past week on the back of a mixed set of data. The currency initially saw substantial weakness after lower than expected retail sales which saw a number of investment banks lower their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast and also saw markets push back their expectations for a Fed rate increase. However the greenback went on to pare some of its losses later on in the week on the back of higher than expected core CPI readings.

Since the start of the year the currency rose 1.0% and is in a bullish phase since the end of last week. The GBPUSD last week initially fell with a wide range but found enough buying pressure at the low of the upward channel managing to close in the green near the high of the week. The stochastic is showing a strong bullish momentum although is still below the 50 mid line.

Expecting an upward move to the 200-day moving average at 1.5842 on a break above previous week high at 1.5508 (scenario 1) or a bounce off the weekly resistance at 1.5606 could push the currency down to 1.5483 (scenario 2).