Zacks
0
All posts from Zacks
Zacks in Our Research. Your Success.,

What Awaits Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) in Q1 Earnings?

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE is set to report first-quarter results on Apr 27, after market closes. Last quarter, the company posted a positive earnings surprise of 3.85%.

The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 8.70%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors at Play

Management anticipates a solid start to 2016 and expects a moderate increase in prices in the first quarter. The company also expects comps to grow in the range of 1.5–2.5% for the first quarter of 2016, despite sluggish comps growth in the preceding quarter.

For the first quarter, management expects earnings per share between 59 cents and 62 cents. This compares favorably with earnings of 56 cents reported a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 60 cents.

However, high food costs along with increased labor expenses will continue to hurt the company’s margins in the first quarter. Further, the shift in Easter Timing and inclement weather conditions have hurt casual dining trends which might have affected traffic in the to-be reported first quarter. Moreover, with the company striving to expand its presence worldwide, pre-opening expenses should add to the costs, thus affecting margins.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that The Cheesecake Factory is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 60 cents. Hence, the difference is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The Cheesecake Factory’s Zacks Rank #3 when combined with a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few companies in the broader consumer discretionary industry which, as per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Domino’s Pizza Inc. DPZ, with an Earnings ESP of +2.06% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Bojangles Inc. BOJA, with an Earnings ESP of +5.88% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Panera Bread Company PNRA, with an Earnings ESP of +1.33% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report >>


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
PANERA BREAD CO (PNRA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
DOMINOS PIZZA (DPZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CHEESECAKE FACT (CAKE): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
BOJANGLES INC (BOJA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
 
Zacks Investment Research