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AUD/CHF - Double Top Forming at Channel Resistance

AUD/CHF has been bullish throughout March, but has stalled after the latest swing to 0.8321, the 2014 high. The 4H chart shows that the stochastic was just near 80, and is crossing down. This reflects a market in a bearish correction cycle after the previous rally brought the stochastic to overbought conditions.

Double top scenario: A break below 0.82 should clearly set a double top and open up the next support pivot at 0.8145, then the 0.8050 pivot, which will be between 50-61.8% retracement levels.

Also look for support when the stochastic is down to 20, and the RSI near 40.


(AUD/CHF 4h chart, 4/9)

The daily chart shows that the double top seen in the 4H chart is forming at rising channel resistance.

We can also see in the daily chart that AUD/CHF is just bottoming. It has an inverted head and shoulders, and the March rally broke above a year-long falling trendline.

Carry-Trade:
The bullish outlook is appetizing also to carry-trade investors since the RBA has a 2.50% benchmark interest rate, and the SNB has a near-zero one.

Also, to benefit from carry trade, the position must be held over a significant period of time. The trend that is developing in AUD/CHF is seen in the daily chart, and provides upside outlook for at least the next few months based on the fact that the 1-year declining trendline is broken.