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The USD Continues to Flex Despite "Disappointing" Data

Today we had a couple of US data points both missing forecast levels.

US Jobless Claims: 283K

Forecast: 269K
Last Week: 266K
While this missed forecasts and showed more people claiming unemployment benefit the previous week, the 283K print is relatively strong. Jobless claims has now been staying below 300K, which is a good sign. However this is only one side  to the labor recovery, actual job growth and wage growth are now the focus while jobless claims are no longer that significant unless it starts coming back above 300K again.

Flash Manufacturing PMI (October): 56.2

Forecast: 57.2
Previous: 57.5 (revised down from 57.9
Manufacturing growth missed forecast and is slower than the previous month's. The 56.2 reading drops the PMI index back to the May level. Still, the overall trend is positive in 2014 when the index started the year around 53.7.

When you put it in context, you can say that the disappointing data were not bad at all. The USD definitely maintained its bullish posture as seen in the 4H US Dollar Index:

USDX 4H Chart 10/23(click to enlarge)

Also note in the 4H chart that price has broken above a falling channel resistance, and crossed above the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs in the 4H chart. The 4H RSI popped up above 60, showing loss of October's bearish momentum.

Clearing above 86.00 would break above a couple of resistance pivots, and open up the high on the year at 86.75 with risk of further upside. If we get a pullback, a bullish market should provide support in the 85.25-85.50 area. A break back below 85.00 however introduces further consolidation/bearish correction.