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EUR/AUD in a Bullish Breakout but with Limited Outlook

The EUR/AUD made a low on the year at 1.3710 in mid-March and has rebounded. There was a consolidation between roughly 1.3803 and 1.4070 for a week or so. Then at end of last week, price started to chip away at the range resistance. This week, price eventually broke free of this range, and is in a bullish continuation mode for the very short-term (out look within this week).

EUR/AUD 4H Chart 3/31
(click to enlarge)

A reason to be conservative on the bullish outlook is that EUR/AUD has been in a bearish trend in 2015 coming down from a Dec 2014 high around 1.53. 

EUR/AUD Daily Chart 3/31
(click to enlarge)

When we look at the daily chart we can indeed see the bearish trend in 2015. If price extends the current short-term bullish swing in March, it will be challenged by a falling trendline and the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs when it approaches 1.43. Thus we should expect resistance here, especially if the daily RSI approaches and stalls around 60. Here, we should look for a bearish continuation attempt, and if you are conservative on the downside for whatever reason, you can still look for an attempt at least towards the 1.40 handle if not back to test the 1.3710 low.