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August could yet spark a ‘classic’ late-year rally for stocks

Critical information ahead of the market’s open

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“Beaten in a race? By whom? Not you, surely!”
Thank headlines from the Middle Kingdom for keeping you from dozing off completely during the mid-August haze.

There was more volatility from Shanghai this morning, along with talk of a “death cross” (see our chart of the day). But yesterday pretty much proved that anyone who’s afraid of the big bad China wolf is already out of the market, and the rest don’t care to sell on those headlines, says Jani Ziedins of the Cracked Market blog.

“Right or wrong, when no one sells a headline, it stops mattering,” he says.

But as you trudge through the month, know that your patience in this market could be rewarded, and the odds are in your favor for an upbeat end-of-year outcome for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.83% says our call of the day. It is packed with some historical data that suggests this tortoise-like market will win in the end.

Begging to disagree with us, feisty contrarian Marc Faber declared yesterday that the S&P 500 is in a “stealth bear market,” peppered by far more 12-month new lows than new highs. He predicts a “substantially lower” end to the year, though we know his track record is far from perfect. Read the whole interview on CNBChere.

Mull that over between catnaps and more retail earnings, consumer prices and minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. While markets will be hanging onto any insight about a September interest-rate hike, at least one new warning has cropped up, trying to head the Fed off at the pass.

DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach said yesterday that the Fed would be foolish to hike interest rates when junk bonds are sitting around four-year lows. And maybe the market can brush past China, but the Fed should definitely be alarmed about selling that is been seen in copper and commodity prices, he told Reuters.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dull-august-could-yet-spark...