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Gartman Says September Rate Hike "All But Impossible"

The (initially) euphoric response to Friday's worse than expected jobs report was due to one simple reason: the vast majority of analysts and pundits assumed that with "bad news again good news", it meant that a September rate hike was officially off the table and it was smooth sailing through at least December. To be sure, while Goldman notably disagreed, and its shift revised September rate hike odd forecast from 40% to 55% helped close the FF futures virtually unchanged on the day after initially sliding , for momentum and trend chasers such as Dennis Gartman, there was no doubt, because as CNBC noted yesterday, "the news was even worse than the headline suggests."

In his Monday letter, Gartman said the one-tenth decline in hours worked from 34.4 hours to 34.3 hours was "the rough equivalent of actually losing at least 200,000 non-farm payroll workers in the period in question." The work week decline, reported in the last monthly payrolls release before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Sept. 20-21, effectively scotches a rate hike, he said.

"This is the number that caught us off, and this is the number that we think shall make it all but impossible for the FOMC to vote to raise the (overnight) fed funds rate at the (September) meeting,"...


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