Nick Nasad
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AUD/USD - Slanted H&S Looking to Break-out? Or Does Trendline/55EMA Hold?

The AUD/USD has had an impressive 3-day stretch as improving data from China as well as an RBA statement that was more hawkish than market participants expected has helped to boost the Aussie.

  • In the AUD/USD pair this has meant a rally from the lows on Friday near .89 to Wednesday's high at 0.9165.
  • The interesting to note here is like with other commodity currencies pairs we see a pattern emerging in the daily time-frame, though this one isn't particularly conventional. What we can see is we have a sideways/slanted head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline that is a downward sloping trendline. This can be seen from the green thick lines I have over price action (sorry for the chart purists out there).
  • We test that trendline currently, which also lines up quite well with the 55-EMA in this timeframe. And the pair has broken its long-term trendline descending from the highs set back in April.
  • If we measures the distance from the neckline to the apex of the "H&S pattern" (the red line) and project that from the neckline (the 2nd neckline), we get a target of near 0.9530.
  • In the short term we have a few resistance levels to use as horizontal pivots including 0.9230, 0.9290, and 0.9935.
Now, I don't necessarily see the AUD bursting forward and attaining the 0.95 area in the next few sessions, and its more likely that we fall back a bit (buy the dip?), instead of pushing higher, but I also want to see the possibility of both scenarios and be prepared if the upward momentum in the pair holds.

- Nick