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NZD/USD Coiling Above a Key Trendline

NZD/USD has been declining since July's high of 0.8835 to a low of 0.8423 in August, last week. Since then, the Kiwi-Greenback has been trading in a triangle, coiling with lower highs and higher lows. Still, the overall technical picture in the 4H chart is very bearish. 

The 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs in the 4H chart are sloping down and are in bearish alignment. Price action, and the triangle itself, has been below the moving averages.The RSI has tagged below 30, and even ventured below 20, but has held below 60, which reflects maintenance of the bearish momentum.

(NZD/USD 4H Chart)

If the bearish bias seen in the 4H chart extends and price breaks the triangle to the downside, it will have a significant implication in the medium-term as well. In the short-term, it might open up the 61.8% retracement level seen on the daily chart, around 0.8350. But for the medium-term outlook, it would reflect a break below a key rising trendline that connects Sept. 2013's low of 0.7714 with the 2014-low made in February, of 0.8051. 

(NZD/USD Daily Chart)

If price breaks above 0.85, it would clear above a couple of falling trendlines seen in the 4H chart, as well as pull back above the 50-period SMA in that time-frame. The immediate target/resistance would be in the 0.8530 area, which is the August high. Above that, we can expect some further upside in the short-term, but we should look for sellers in the 0.8630-0.8650 area. 

In the 4H chart, the 200-period SMA resides at 0.8650 along with a support/resistance pivot. The daily chart also shows the 50-day, and 100-day SMAs around the 0.8630 area. A break above 0.8650 would clear all these resistance factors, and could be a sign of bullish continuation especially if the rising trendline - being tested currently - remains intact.