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Actionable news in TLT: ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF,

Here’s what Treasury yields tell us about the stock market’s next move

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Will stocks or bonds win this tug of war?

After a dismal start to the year, stocks logged an impressive springtime run that in the third week of April landed the S&P 500 SPX, -0.85% and the Dow industrials DJIA, -1.05% about 1% from all-time highs.

Yet even as stocks reversed course, the Treasury market didn’t exactly follow suit. Demand for Treasurys has not subsided and Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, remain close to the nearly three-year lows reached on Feb. 11. On Friday, the 10-year benchmark yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.61% closed at 1.705%, only 50 basis points above the Feb. 11 lows. The S&P was near 2,046 Friday, well above the 1,829 it closed at on February 11.

Treasury prices soared at the beginning of the year, as global stock markets tumbled and frightened investors flocked to haven assets, mainly government debt. But, as the following chart shows, since Feb. 11, the 10-year...


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