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Forex Recap: Big Swings in FX

The 3/13 session was a volatile one.

EUR/USD looked poised to challenge 1.40, but fell sharply during the US session. Draghi did talk about the increasing concern of the euro appreciating, as well as deflation risk. The EUR/USD fell from about 1.3966 to about 1.3845 to end the 3/13 session.

Despite this sharp intra-session reversal, EUR/USD remains bullish, though we can expect some consolidation ahead before extending higher. More clues, like a break below the projected channel support in the 4H chart will be needed to add to the bearish case.

(EUR/USD 4H Chart)

GBP/USD also had a choppy day. It rallied to 1.6715 before falling back to 1.6610 to end the session. This price action reflects the consolidation since mid-February seen in the 4H chart. I am still looking forward to the 61.8%-50% retracement zone between 1.6470 and 1.6535. 

(GBP/USD 4H Chart)

This area also coincides with some projected rising support seen in the daily chart. Also an ABC projection where C=A points near 50%, suggesting we start to monitor for continuation of a previous upswing before the ABC. 

(GBP/USD Daily Chart)

The USD/JPY stalled its decline briefly after US data, but fell sharply after reversing that reaction. The market is holding the USD/JPY neutral instead of extending last week's bullish development. 

However, a bearish outlook is still shelved as USD/JPY trades within a rising channel seen in the daily chart.

(USD/JPY Daily chart)

AUD/USD and NZD/USDAUD/USD had a boost from better than expected employment data, and the NZD/USD rallied sharply after the RBNZ raised the official cash rate from 2.50% to 2.75%.

(AUD/USD and NZD/USD 4H charts)

The AUD/USD has a recent bullish development, but today's price action reflects this past week's consolidation mode.

(NZD/USD weekly chart)

The NZD/USD has been much stronger, with expectations of the rate hike matched, the kiwi still has some fuel. However, it is now testing a triangle seen in the weekly chart.