Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
3
All posts from Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
Arcángel de Jesús Montoya in Money Trafficking,

Your Option Strategies In Vulcan Materials Company Pre-Earnings

Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), a producer of construction aggregates (primarily crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a producer of asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete, which operates approximately 344 aggregates facilities in the US, is reporting earnings on Monday, August 1, at market open:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

As evident from the above, the company beat earnings estimates in 63% of time in the last eight quarters, underperforming or showing in-line results in 37% of time, and has seen modest volatility in the market price of its stock over the last three months:

149397

The market participants expect the following numbers over the next few quarters, including the upcoming one:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

On the other hand, market data show that the August options are relatively cheap:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The monthly straddles (options with a strike price of $125.00) are worth around 5.8% of the current market price of the stock. Historically, the stock has been more volatile than that on a monthly basis over the last year:

(Source:Google Finance. Calculations by author)

As you can see, the stock has had a monthly standard deviation of 8.6% over the last 52 weeks, while the straddle expiring in a bit less than a month has an implied monthly volatility of around 7.3% (calculated based on 15 business days remaining until expiration), also including volatility from the earnings event this week. I therefore see signs of modest undervaluation in these options. Hence, buying the straddle is a good idea from the theoretical standpoint.

Investors can also be interested in selling out-of-money options to partially finance the straddles (i.e. "funding"):

(Source: optionsprofitcalculator.com)

On the one hand, this will limit expected returns. On the other hand, this action will minimize losses in the event the stock does not move swiftly over the next three weeks. The risk-return profile of such trade looks like this:

(Source: optionsprofitcalculator.com)

What do you think of this trade?