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What's in the Cards for D.R. Horton (DHI) in Q2 Earnings?

D.R. Horton Inc. DHI is set to report second quarter fiscal 2016 results on Apr 21, before the market opens.  

Last quarter, it had posted in line results.  However, the company surpassed estimates in three out of the past four quarters, resulting in an average positive surprise of 6.45%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

D.R. Horton expects solid performance in fiscal 2016 backed by a solid community count, robust backlog position, and well-stocked inventory of land, lots and homes. These tailwinds should drive top-line growth in the to-be reported quarter as well.

The order numbers have been steady for the past few quarters, a trend which is expected to continue in the soon-to-be reported quarter.  

Gross margin remained weak due to higher cost of homes amid moderating sales price increases and unfavorable product mix. A higher proportion of Express Homes in home closings is unfavorably impacting product mix and thereby gross margins. For the second quarter of fiscal 2016, gross margin is predicted in the high 19% to 20% range.

Moreover, labor bottlenecks and slowing demand trends in the Houston market witnessed in the past two quarters are likely to impact second quarter 2016 results.

Earnings Whisper?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that D.R. Horton is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. However, that is not the case here as you will see below.

Negative Zacks ESP: D.R. Horton’s Earnings ESP is -8.51% as the Most Accurate Estimate stands at 43 cents while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged higher at 47 cents.

Zacks Rank: D.R. Horton’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings surprise.

Note that we caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies in the broader construction sector that can be considered as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Headwaters Incorporated HW with an Earnings ESP of +11.11% and a Zacks Rank #1.

CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. CX, with an Earnings ESP of +28.57% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ASPN, with an Earnings ESP of +20.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
HEADWATERS INC (HW): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ASPEN AEROGELS (ASPN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CEMEX SA ADR (CX): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
D R HORTON INC (DHI): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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