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The Case Against Pandora

If you have had your eye of the Pandora (NYSE:P) stock over the past year you would have seen a major appreciation in stock price. In November 2012, one share of Pandora cost just over seven dollars, today one share costs over $21.

According to an article on Seeking Alpha, it might just be a good time to short the stock. First off, Apple is introducing the new iRadio that would provide more competition for the internet radio provider.  However the market needs to look at the current valuation, currently the company has not produced any earnings. According to Bloomberg forecasts, Pandora will produce revenues of $0.15 per share in fiscal year 2015 and $0.77 per share in fiscal 2017. This means that the company is valued well if it were 2020.

According to a Scenario Analysis the stock should be around $14.39 per share. In the bear case it should be $9.04 per share and in the bull case it should be $24.02 per share. These analyses cannot accurately forecast future competition, what would happen if Google comes into play, what if iRadio is a hit. Since Pandora was the first to enter the market, it might be difficult for other companies to attract customers, unless their product is significantly better. You decide.

Any opinions on Pandora?