Oskar Frampton III
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Oskar Frampton III in Oskar Frampton III - Media Watcher,

The Price of Oil Down To Twenty Bucks?

OSKAR FRAMPTON MEDIA WATCH


BLURBLE BLURBLE...

Doing my usual best to to keep an eye out on the world of the media and try to be a daily contributor. I love keeping tabs on flame wars; it kind of gives us a whiff of what the world is thinking about the top stories. 

There's been a big story going back and forth about the fact that the price of oil is about to plunge down to $20 a barrel. Naturally there is a lot of agreement and disagreement in both directions. I don't know that it's going to fall that low, but there are people who actually believe that as an entity OPEC is finished. I don't know that that's true, but they are certainly weakening with the increase in shale energy.

Look at this stuff!

Sluggeaux 22 minutes ago 2 6

Article content and title strongly indicates the ignorance of the author and Citigroup source.

SA/UAE/Kuwait - the heavy hitters of OPEC can adjust production in ~2-3 months time from plan to output adjustment. They can produce and profit at $27/bbl price index. Compare that with Russia and US onshore production requiring ~$50/bbl for break even, US and Russian Offshore requiring ~$52/bbl break even price, and US Shale production requiring a whopping $62/bbl to break even. Add to that planning-surveying-exploration-drilling lead time for US and most other producers being ~2-3 years. US Shale and Russian shore/shelf based drilling are the only real increases in market share in the last few years.

It would definitely not be the end of OPEC. OPEC is the only group that has the capital, and ability to survive that low of a price for any length of time, and long before they would be "ended" by $20, the increase of market share, and drastic reduction in competition would jump the price of oil WAY over record amounts. They would once again have the monopoly they had in the 70's when fuel costs were at records, there were long lines at pumps to get gas, and many stations that had none to give, and it would be 2-3 years before US, Russian, and other producers could get the machine rolling and producing again.

Heck, both of the largest Mammoths are in SA and Kuwait. The smallest of the 2 (Burgan in Kuwait) produces 8x as much bbls as the 3rd largest (which is Iran's main field, Zagheh). Huge reserviors of untapped resource, that can just about increase or decrease production with the turning of a few valves, and some pumps. Their only delay in production increase or decrease is the time it takes to get to and through the refining process.

THEN THERE'S THIS GUY:

Commenter 25 minutes ago

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Opec has been dead for some time, it is now Saudi Arabia/Kuwait and some hangers-on. $20 oil seems like a reach but if that is what it takes for the Saudis to kill much of shale/tar sands oil then it might happen.

I do not think Suadi arabia quite realizes that it might break some oil companies now and then bring the price back up. But once that price goes back up, other companies will fill the holes that were left. Unless of course our government allows the Saudi Sovereign fund to buy up all those juicy shale rights (crazy right?).

 AND LASTLY, I LOVE THIS ONE:

fiend_bear 35 minutes ago

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Oil will be free. However, the TAXES will still kill us!