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USD/CAD Testing Resistance Factors

In the 4H USD/CAD chart, you can see a market that has put in a price bottom in the beginning of July and has traded up since then. Price has pushed above the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages as well as a falling trendline from June's 1.0960 high. The RSI has also shown bullish momentum development as it tagged 70, held above 40, and pushed above 70 again. However this bullish trend is now at a key resistance area around the 1.0835 pivot. 

USD/CAD 4H Chart 7/28

If price holds below 1.0850, it would respect the falling trendline as well as the 200-day SMA as resistance. This would reaffirm the bearish outlook, which has downside risk toward the 1.0588 low on the year, as well as the 1.0560 Dec. 2013 support pivot. An additional clue would be the daily RSI holding below 60.

A break below 1.0740 and a short-term rising support seen in the 4H chart should trigger this bearish outlook.

USD/CAD Daily Chart 7/28

If price pushes above 1.0850 however, the bearish outlook could be in danger. The 1.09 handle would the near-term target, with short-term upside risk toward the 1.0960 pivot. If the daily RSI clearly pushes above 60, we would have lost bearish momentum. 

In this scenario, USD/CAD would have turned sideways if it has not revived the bullish outlook. Because of the non-trend, we should limit the bullish outlook for now to 1.0960, and at most maybe 1.10.