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Forex Recap: Euro Falls after ECB Presser, Other Majors Drifting

The main event risk today was ECB's monetary statement followed by its press conference, where Draghi answered questions from the media. 

The euro fell half way into the presser as the market found it to be relatively more dovish in that Draghi revealed more talk of QE and other measures that can be taken to alleviate "prolonged" low inflation.

The EUR/USD cracked this week's low but seems to be supported around 1.37 ahead of tomorrow's US NFP.


(EUR/USD 1H chart, 4/3)

The EUR/JPY retreated before testing the 143.79 March high, but the overall bias remains bullish. If the bullish mode is retained, watch for support around 142, which was resistance a couple of week's ago during a period of consolidation.


(EUR/JPY 4H chart, 4/3)


EUR/GBP has been in a volatile consolidation/bullish correction this week as you can see in the 4H chart. There is some prevailing bearish bias heading into this week, but before that we had a bullish breakout swing. Thus EUR/GBP is trading at the crossroad, and a break out of this week's range should give it at least some short-term direction.


(EUR/GBP 4H Chart)


USD/JPY
inched higher, but is stalling at the 104.00 handle. It is still bullish, but we might see some consolidation ahead of the US NFP. If it remains bullish after the event risk, it should be poised to test the 2014 high at 105.42.


(USD/JPY 4H Chart) 

USD/CHF pushed to the 50% retracement level, bouncing off a channel support, and thus confirming a bullish development since it hit the 0.8698 March low and sprung up above a falling trendline. The 0.8925-30 area is also a support/resistance pivot area. Above this, the 0.8981, 61.8% retracement level the target in the near-term.

The Swiss Franc is correlated with the EUR, so when the Euro was dumped during the ECB presser, so was the CHF.



(USD/CHF 4H Chart)


AUD/USD continued to consolidate, forming a double top and thus suggesting some further downside risk in the near-term. It is squaring up ahead of tomorrow's US NFP. If the double top is put in place and Aussie slides, watch the previous resistance at 0.9136 as a first possible support. 


(AUD/USD 4H chart)