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WTI Crude Oil Might be Basing

Oil prices have been on a roller coaster in 2014. After rallying from a low around 91.25 in January to a high on the year at 107.68 in June.Since then, price has fallen to 92.50, not quite the low on the year, yet but essentially erasing any meaningful bullish outlook built in the first half of the year in a couple of months. Now as price holds above 92.50, we are witnessing some strong volatility. It is possible the market is finally stabilizing around 94.00, with 96.00 as resistance. 

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart 9/3

(click to enlarge)

When you look at the daily chart again, you can see that the middle of this year's range is around 98.80-99.00 area. Let's call this the central pivot. It Oil price is in a sideways mode, there should be regression tendency toward this 98.80-99.00 area. So far, price is holding above 92.50, and showing that if it breaks above 96.00, it will likely come up to test this 99.00 area as resistance. Around 99.00, we have a support/resistance pivot and a falling trendline.

Note that if the market can hold below 99.75, there is a bearish bias within the sideways range because price would be below the 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs. Also, if the RSI holds below 60, there is some bearish momentum, and there is still downside risk toward 92.50 and then the 91.25 low on the year.

A break above 100 will be need to introduce the bullish outlook. Until then oil price is in the neutral-bearish mode.