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AUD/JPY Awaits Bearish Outlook Confirmation

Last week, AUD/JPY bounced off the 94.40 level, respecting the 61.8% retracement of the May-June rally from 93.04 to 96.50.

(audjpy 4h chart)

AUD/JPY is currently trading around 95.20, which is a previous consolidation area support area. Just above the current price, there is a falling trendline coming down from the 96.50 high on the year. Will the market confirm a bearish outlook?

If price can hold below 95.60, I believe the bearish outlook is still in play because it would still remain below the 200-4H SMA. Of course, a stronger confirmation of the bearish outlook would be price holding below the falling short-term trendline and the all of the 200-, 100-, 50-period SMAs in the 4H chart. 

The bearish outlook has short-term downside risk toward the 93.70 area, near a support pivot seen on May 28. 

If price however pushes above 95.60, it will clear above the moving averages and the falling trendline. If this is accompanied by the RSI pushing above 60, we should consider bearish momentum dead, and if the RSI pushes above 70, we should consider a revival of the bullish outlook, or at least a shift from a neutral-bearish outlook, to a neutral-bullish outlook that has the 96.50 high on the year in sight.