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CT#11 still bearish long term - possible reversal ahead

CT#11 still bearish long term - possible reversal ahead

Cotton #2 ICEUSA:CTH2015

Here is my contribution to the nice ichimoku analysis done by Kumowizard and posted at https://www.tradingview.com/v/POQOl7wn/#tc135818 The wave count on the weekly chart reinforces the idea that bears will keep control on the mid/long-term. At this point in time it is pretty safe to assume that intermediate-3 is consolidated retracing the full 2.618 ratio and suggesting this would be an extended 3. Wave 4 retraces nicely at 0.236 times wave 3 and the AWE oscillator indicates that a 3-5 divergence is possible. Wave 5, when 3 is extended, can develop between 1 times wave 1 (equality to wave 1), 0.618 times wave 1 or (less likely in this case) 1.618 times wave 1. On the daily chart, a couple of alternate count is possible; however, my preferred count would the one shown in orange with minor wave 3 under development. Like Kumowizard mention in his analysis, an upward (most likely brief) movement could be possible as part of lesser degree wave count (not shown on chart above) suggesting a corrective wave 4 would be under way. Takeaways: If the ongoing Intermediate 5 and Minor 3 materialize, it could lead us into a more consistent upward move/correction, but then again, alternate counts are possible therefore feel free to contribute.