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Why MBIA Inc. Stock Just Jumped 10%

What happened

Shares of bond backer MBIA (NYSE: MBI) are up 10.2% as of 3 p.m. EDT.

So what

MBIA reported its fiscal Q1 2017 earnings this morning. The bond insurer booked a $0.55 per share loss for the quarter, narrower than its $0.58 per share loss one year ago. Moreover, stock watchers are reporting that the company's pro-forma performance worked out to $0.07 in profit, which was a penny better than Wall Street had been expecting to see. Thus, analysts are chalking this one up as an "earnings beat" for MBIA -- yes, even though MBIA lost money.

MBIA said its book value increased from $23.87 per share to $24.73 over the past three months, and its adjusted book value grew from $31.88 to $33.69 per share.

MBIA stock is motoring ahead on Thursday. Image source: Getty Images.

Now what

MBIA gave no guidance on what it expects the rest of the year to hold. For what it's worth (i.e., not much), analysts are projecting "earnings" of $0.24 per share this year, and if MBIA achieved $0.07 in the first quarter, then it appears to be on track to hit that target over the course of the next three quarters.

That said, analysts' estimates here appear to be of the pro-forma variety -- much like the profits that created this alleged earnings beat. However, with GAAP profits deeply in negative territory, I have to say that the chances of MBIA turning things around and delivering $0.24 worth of GAAP profits look pretty slim at this point.

On revenues, though, MBIA is on track. The company booked $77 million in revenue in Q1 -- more than twice what it collected in the year-ago quarter. With analysts only hoping to see about $249 million in revenues by year end, MBIA is 31% of the way toward its goal already, and it has consumed only 25% of the year to get here.

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Rich Smith has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.