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AUD/CAD in a Month-Long Triangle Breakout

The AUD/CAD has been choppy in August but looks like it might end the month on a bullish note. From a end-of-July low at 0.9402, AUD/CAD rallied to 0.9748 before retreating sharply to 0.95. After a brief tag of 0.95 however, the market continued to be choppy. 

AUD/CAD Daily Chart 8/23
(click to enlarge)

On one hand, the RSI has held mostly below 60 after tagging 30 when price dipped back below 0.95. On the other hand, price is back above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages. More importantly, price ended last week with a bullish breakout from a triangle that has been forming for about a month.

With the bullish breakout, it looks like the 0.9748 high is back in the picture. If we get a pullback, we should see support at or above 0.96. A break back below 0.96 makes it a possible false breakout, which might translate into further choppy price action with some bearish bias in the short-term back towards 0.95. 

AUD/CAD Daily Chart 8/23


(click to enlarge)

When we look at the daily chart, we see a market that is making an attempt to complete a price bottom and rise up from it. However, if price falls back below 0.9550, the price bottom attempt is probably a failure. 

The daily chart warns us to be prepared if the bullish outlook does not pan out. However, the daily and 4H chart together do suggest that a price bottom could be forming, especially if price can hold above 0.96 and make another attempt to break above the 0.9750 area.