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EUR/JPY - Critical Breakdown of Consolidation Pattern

The days of easy JPY-weakness plays are over. 2015 has been a choppy one where we have seen more yen-resilience than in the past several years. The EUR/JPY hsa been in a rollercoaster as well. 

The EUR/JPY started the year bearish and made a low at 126.09 in April. Then a sharp reversal to a high around 141 followed. The daily chart shows that since the 141 high, price has neutralized, and perhaps is starting to turn bearish.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart 8/26

(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows price trading in the middle of the 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages, which are traveling relatively sideways. This is a sign that the EUR/JPY is in a "neutral" price zone. The thing is, price action has broken a consolidation pattern that has been forming since the first week of July. After the failure to climb above 139, the market seems to be threatening a bearish continuation - a continuation of the June price action. The bearish outlook first puts the 133-133.10 area in sight. 

EUR/JPY 4H Chart 8/26


(click to enlarge)

At the moment, trading this pair might not offer a decent reward to risk (in case the current bearish break is a false break). However, if price climbs back towards the 137.60-138 area, the R:R profile will become a lot more attractive. Also, if price does pullback and find resistance below or at this area, there would be a stronger case for the dip to 133-133.10. 

I am confident that traders will make a bullish charge in this choppy market. The market has already "chewed" down the tail made earlier this week. That bout of JPY-strength can be attributed to a session of strong global risk aversion. Now, I would look for resistance around 137. I think the pair should hold under 138.00 if the bearish outlook is still in play. So, a stop at 138.20 for example would give a risk of 120 pips. The target of 133.10 is 390 pips away, making the R:R at least 3:1. Even if the stop is at 138.75 for example, the R:R is better than 2:1.