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US Data 5/15: USD/JPY and Gold Reactions

CPI m/m (Apr.): 0.3%
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous (Mar.): 0.2%

Core CPI (Apr.): 0.2%
Forecast: 0.1%
Previous (Mar.): 0.2%

Jobless Claims: 297K
Forecast: 321K
Previous: 319K

Empire State Manufacturing Index (May): 19
Forecast: 5.5
Previous 1.3

US data was mostly positive today and traders are reacting USD-positive. Let's look at the initial reaction in USD/JPY and Gold.


(usdjpy 1h chart)

USD/JPY rallied and is starting to build a bottom in the very short-term. Staying north of 102, USD/JPY has the next resistance levels in sight:
R1: 102.35
R2: 103

However, failure to clear 102.20, while the 1H RSI holds below 60, the pair will still have near-term bearish momentum, and a return below 102, puts the focus back on the 101.40-50 support area.

Gold (XAU/USD)

(gold 4h chart)

Gold price was trying to push above 1300 today, and was challenged by a falling trendline coming down from April's high of 1331. The 4H chart shows a market that is bearish but has turned neutral. Failure to break above the trendline keeps the bearish bias. 

After this reaction, a break above this week's high around 1310 will open up the 1331 high. Otherwise, direction remains unclear even in the short-term.