Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

USD/JPY - can bulls hold critical support at 100.80?

USD/JPY is at a critical juncture from a technical perspective. Let's take a look at the 4H chart.

USD/JPY 4H Chart 8/15

(click to enlarge)

Sideways market:
- From the 4H chart, we can see that price action started to flatten at the end of June - start of July after a period of downtrend. 
- If we are to look at this as a sideways market in the medium-term, the resistance is in the 107-107.50 area and the support area goes down to about 100 (ignoring the wick to cracked 99.00 in June). 
- Price action established resistance by the end of July, and also came down to establish a new support in August. 
- The new support is around 100.65-100.85. 
- We have seen price attempt to break this area several times but fail in the past couple of weeks.
- So, we have a sideways market in the medium-term (since end of June), and a sideways market in the short-term (over the past couple of weeks). 

Bulls vs. Bears:
- I tend to be bullish on USD/JPY, but only in the medium to long-term.
- In the short and short-medium-term, I see a fierce battle. 
- Since 100.65 has held as support so many times, I think a break would send USD/JPY falling sharply. 
- To the upside, we first need a break above 101.50. 
- But it will take a break above 102.50 to open up a bullish outlook outside of the short-term. A break above 102.50 opens up the 107-107.50 area.