Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

UK Retail Sales - GBP/USD's Reaction

UK retail sales for the month of March came in at 1.0%. The previous reading was revised down to 1.3% from 1.7%, and the forecast was for a -0.4% reading. 

Year on Year readings are strong:
On the year retail improved 4.2%. The month on month readings fluctuate, but the year over year chart shows gains every month for a year now, and has shown strong growth to end 2013 and start 2014.


(source: tradingeconomics.com)

GBP/USD got a boost immediately after the release, but is struggling to break above a consolidation resistance around 1.6840. 

However the bullish case is strong with the prevailing uptrend intact and a break above 1.6840 opens up the bullish continuation scenario.


(gbpusd 1h chart, 4/25)

Failure:
The reaction candlestick went down to 1.6790. If traders in the rest of the 4/25 US session fail to bring the pair above 1.6840 and instead drags it below 1.6790, we should look for at least some short-term consolidation and possible bearish attempt back towards the consolidation lows around 1.6750.