Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

USD/CHF Finds Support on the Back of a Dovish ECB

ECB. EUR reaction:
Today traders faded EUR-strength after the ECB press conference, latching on the possibility that the central bank might cut rates or apply some other stimulus measures in June.

We saw the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP turn bearish after the ECB. The USD/CHF was also moved by the event risk due to the positive correlation between EUR and CHF.


(usdchf 4h chart, 5/8)

2014-Low:
USD/CHF was approaching the 2014-low near 0.87. This was in the context of a bearish trend that has been developing at least since May 2013. The year-long bearish trend is intact, but if the 2014-low holds, USD/CHF might be shifting from bearish to neutral mode, and could be setting up some price bottom.

Price bottom clues
In the consolidation, or price bottom attempt scenario, we should see the 4H RSI push above 70, and hold above 40 on a subsequent decline. Price should also rise above the 0.88.10-0.8820 area, which serves as a central pivot between 0.87 and 0.8950. 

Then the 0.8950 area will be a key resistance to a price bottom scenario. If the USD/CHF can push above 0.8960, it will introduce a bullish outlook.