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Anticipating Resistance in AUD/NZD

The AUD/NZD has made a V-shape reversal in September, as we can see in the daily chart.

AUD/NZD Daily Chart 10/13

(click to enlarge)

Resistance factors:
- As price pushes above 1.07, AUD/NZD is testing a resistance zone going back to May.
- Furthermore, price is testing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which can act as resistance if the trend is bearish.
- The trend might be flattening, but it is at least NOT bullish. Therefore, we should anticipate some resistance here, but temper the bearish outlook.
- Lastly, the RSI is in the overbought zone. Now the fact that it was able to get there indicates initiation of bullish momentum. But we can still anticipate some resistance in the short-term.

Anticipated downswing, then support:
- At this point, if AUD/NZD indeed starts to stall around 1.07-1,0775, we can anticipate a bearish attempt, but limit the outlook to the 1.05 handle. 
- This is in the middle of a support/resistance pivot area. 
- Also, the 100-, and 50-day SMAs are around 1.05. 
- i would also monitor the RSI. If bullish momentum is indeed initiated, then the RSI should hold above 40. 
- Therefore, if price is back around 1.05 and the RSI around 40, I will be anticipating buyers and looking for a swing back at least towards 1.07. 
- If this scenario materializes, the market will see a higher low, which would build confidence to extend the rally above the resistance area of 1.07-1.0775.