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NZD/USD Dips as New Zealand Show Trade Deficit

For the first time in 9 month, New Zealand trade balance has turned a deficit. The July trade balance came in at -692, which was wider than the -475M forecast. June's trade balance was 242M surplus. While the wider than expected deficit may reflect the strength of the NZD hurting exports, turning deficit as we get into late Q3 and early Q4 is a cyclical phenomenon as you can see in the historic chart:

(click to enlarge, source: forexfactory.com)
We should expect trade deficits the rest of the year based on cyclical reasoning. 
The NZD/USD has already been bearish in August, after initially consolidating around 0.85. In th e4H chart all signs are bearish with price action, moving averages, and the RSI. We also saw NZD/USD dip lower to 0.8310 after the wider than expected trade deficit data.

(NZD/USD 4H Chart 8/26)

Now, the reaction after the data point has been completely reversed. If price breaks back above 0.8350, we should get at least a near-term bullish correction. In this scenario, let's look for sellers around 0.84 especially if the 1H RSI approaches 60.