Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
2
All posts from Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
Arcángel de Jesús Montoya in Money Trafficking,

Trinseo Is Reporting Earnings On Monday: Think About Iron Condors

Trinseo S.A. (TSE), a materials company that operates under two divisions: Performance Materials and Basic Plastics & Feedstocks, is reporting earnings on Monday, August 1, after market close:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

As evident from the above, the company beat earnings estimates in 37% of time in the last eight quarters, underperforming in 63% of time, and has seen modest volatility in the market price of its stock over the last three months:

The market participants expect the following numbers over the next few quarters, including the upcoming one:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

On the other hand, market data show that the August options are relatively cheap:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The monthly straddles (options with a strike price of $50.00) are worth around 9.3% of the current market price of the stock. Historically, the stock has been more volatile than that on a monthly basis over the last year:

(Source: Google Finance. Calculations by author)

As you can see, the stock has had a monthly standard deviation of 12.5% over the last 52 weeks, while the straddle expiring in a bit less than a month has an implied monthly volatility of around 10.6% (calculated based on 15 business days remaining until expiration), also including volatility from the earnings event this week. I therefore see signs of modest undervaluation in these options. Hence, buying the straddle is a good idea from the theoretical standpoint.

Investors can also be interested in selling out-of-money options to partially finance the straddles (i.e. "funding"):

(Source: optionsprofitcalculator.com)

On the one hand, this trade will limit expected returns. On the other hand, this action will minimize losses in the event the stock does not move swiftly over the next three weeks. The risk-return profile of such trade looks like this:

(Source: optionsprofitcalculator.com)

What do you think of this trade?