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EUR/USD - Bulls Remain in Control

The EUR/USD has been bearish since late August retreating from just above 1.17 to just under 1.11 last week before finding support and stalling.

EUR/USD 4H Chart 9/11

(Click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows that the market has shifted from neutral back to bullish this week after price cleared above 1.12. It is extending the bullish scenario now as it cracks a previous resistance pivot and makes a new high on the month. The fact that price held above the 200-period SMA after the late-August dip suggests that bulls are still in charge in the medium-term. 

Ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, this USD-negative move represents the market lowering its expectation of a rate cut. We are indeed seeing USD-weakness across the board to end the week. The EUR/USD does have the 1.16-1.17 area in sight next week, especially if the Fed votes NOT to raise rates.