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EUR/USD Threatening Another Corrective Swing

EUR/USD was on its way to continue a prevailing downtrend, when price action during the 7/31 session puts this outlook on ice. Now, it could be end-of-month flow. This would be what EUR/USD-bears like me tend to believe. When we look across the board, we can see that this is more of a USD-negative flow story than a EUR-positive one. From a fundamental standpoint, we did get a downward revision of the UMich Economic Sentiment. This sentiment indicator has flattened recently, but is coming off a multi-year high. To me, the strength of the USD might be reduced but not reversed. Still, when we look at the 4H chart, we have to respect the strong bullish price

EUR/USD 4H Chart 7/31
(click to enlarge)

Now, if price does NOT close above 1.11 by the end of the week, I would not respect the 7/31-rally as much. But if it does, I would anticipate a rally towards the July highs around 1.14. My outlook for EUR/USD would remain bearish-neutral in the medium-term, but bullish in the short-term.