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Oil-Price Collapse To Slow Canada's Inflation Further

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FEAR & GREED INDEX - What Emotion dominates the market?

 

NOW: 76/100 GREED 

1 WEEK AGO:  77/100 GREED

1 MONTH AGO:  28/100 FEAR

1 YEAR AGO:  59/100 GREED

 

SAFE HAVEN DEMAND – GREED Stocks have outperformed bonds by 5.21 percentage points during the last 20 trading days. This is close to the strongest performance for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are rotating into stocks from the relative safety of bonds. 

STOCK PRICE STRENGTH – GREED - The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs exceeds the number hitting lows and is at the upper end of its range, indicating extreme greed.

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) = 13.69 - NEUTRAL - Market Risks appear low according to this measure

PUT AND CALL OPTIONS - GREED - During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 41.92% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. This is among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme greed on the part of investors.

MEME OF THE DAY - SO YOUR A TRADER?  

 

PIVOT POINTS

EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | USDCAD | AUDUSD | EURJPY | EURCHF | EURGBPGBPJPY | NZDUSD | USDCHF | EURAUD | AUDJPY 

S&P 500 (ES) | NASDAQ 100 (NQ) | DOW 30 (YM) | RUSSELL 2000 (TF) Euro (6E) | Pound (6B) 

EUROSTOXX 50 (FESX) | DAX 30 (FDAX) | BOBL (FGBM) | SCHATZ (FGBS) | BUND (FGBL) 

CRUDE OIL (CL) | GOLD (GC)

 

HEADLINES

 

Greece Will Need EUR20 Bln In Credits In July - FAZ

Greek Central Bank Warns Fragile Economic Recovery Faces Risks

German Lawmakers To Back Greek Extension Despite Misgivings

Bundesbank's Dombret: To Push For Higher Interest Rate As Soon As Possible

Fed's Bullard: Jobless Rate Below 5% In Second Half

BoE Scheme Fails To Increase Lending To Small Businesses

BoJ's Ishida Says Shouldn't Ease Just To Hit Price Goal At A Set Timing

Portugal 10-Year Bond Yield Falls Below 2%

Eurozone Lending Shows Sign Of Turnaround As Morale Improves

Eurozone Economic Confidence Rises To 7-Month High

UK GDP Growth Sticks At 0.5% In Fourth Quarter

Outgoing Allianz CEO Blasts ECB Bond Buy Plan

Kohl's Beats Profit And Sales Estimates, Raises Dividend

British American Tobacco Sales Fall Less Than Expected

RBS To Exit 10 Countries, Cut Back In Asia, US

Deutsche Telekom Loss Narrowed By Strong US

China PBOC Lowers Funding Lending Rate To Small Businesses

 

COMMENTARY

 

PREVIEW: Oil-Price Collapse To Slow Canada's Inflation Further

The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to drop further down in January, largely due to plunging gasoline prices. Meanwhile, the core CPI likely received support from the lower Canadian dollar.

Inflation is projected to decelerate to 0.8% during the month - the slowest pace in over a year - after easing to 1.5% in December, according to analysts’ consensus.

At the same time, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) core CPI, which excludes eight volatile products, is projected to tick down to 2.1% on an annual basis in January, after edging up to 2.2% the previous month.

The fresh inflation figures will be released on Thursday at 1:30pm GMT. (WBP Online – Continue Reading)

Germany's Biggest Newspaper Is Furious That Merkel's Party Is Backing Greece's Bailout Extension

Germany's largest party, Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, are overwhelmingly in favour of the deal negotiated to extend Greece's bailout package, according to Reuters.

Of the party's 311 lawmakers, only 22 oppose the extension and no more than a handful abstained, according to the test ballot taken to gauge the party before the official vote on Friday.

According to the report, Germany's Social Democrats (the other half of Merkel's current coalition) support the extension unanimously, meaning it's likely to have an overwhelming majority in the Bundestag. The two parties together make up the vast majority of legislators. (Business Insider – Continue Reading)

Outgoing Allianz CEO Blasts ECB Bond Buy Plan

The chief executive of Europe's largest insurer, Allianz, on Thursday blasted the European Central Bank's ultra-cheap money policy as a threat to the single currency's cohesion and a driver of further financial market ructions.

"We are very skeptical about this policy of 'cheap money' in the euro zone," Diekmann said in remarks on the insurer's 2014 results before he turns over the company's helm to Oliver Baete in May. (Reuters – Continue Reading)

Grand Central: That Didn't Go Well, Madame Chair

Federal Reserve officials might have felt comfortable after the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010 that the central bank had escaped the rewrite of the nation’s financial regulatory laws with most of its powers intact. After Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday, they might not be so confident anymore.

“Fed reforms are needed and I for one believe Fed reforms are coming,” Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R., Texas) said in a statement before Ms. Yellen’s second day of semi-annual testimony before Congress.

That was the nice part. (WSJ – Continue Reading)

 

Brazil's Coming Recession: The Crash Of A Titan

It is easy for a visitor to Rio to feel that nothing is amiss in Brazil. The middle classes certainly know how to live: with Copacabana and Ipanema just minutes from the main business districts a game of volleyball or a surf starts the day. Hedge-fund offices look out over botanical gardens and up to verdant mountains. But stray from comfortable districts and the sheen fades quickly. Favelas plagued by poverty and violence cling to the foothills. So it is with Brazil’s economy: the harder you stare, the worse it looks.

Brazil has seen sharp ups and downs in the past 25 years. In the early 1990s inflation rose above 2,000%; it was only banished when a new currency was introduced in 1994. By the turn of the century Brazil’s deficits had mired it in debt, forcing an IMF rescue in 2002. But then the woes vanished. Brazil became a titan of growth, expanding at 4% a year between 2002 and 2008 as exports of iron, oil and sugar boomed and domestic consumption gave an additional kick. Now Brazil is back in trouble. Growth has averaged just 1.3% over the past four years. A poll of 100 economists conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil suggests a 0.5% contraction this year followed by 1.5% growth in 2016. (Economist – Continue Reading)

DATA

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) Jan: 4.10% (est 3.70%; prev 3.60%)

Eurozone Economic Confidence Feb: 102.1 (est 102.0; rev prev 101.4)

UK GDP (QoQ) Q4 P: 0.50% (est 0.50%; prev 0.50%)

UK Index of Services (MoM) Dec: 0.60% (est 0.40%; prev 0.10%)

BoE Usage and Lending Data for FLS

German Unemployment Change (000's) Feb: -20K (est -10K; rev prev -10K)

Italian Retail Sales (MoM) Dec: -0.20% (est -0.10%; prev 0.10%)

Italian Economic Sentiment Feb: 94.9 (prev 91.6)

Italian Hourly Wages (MoM) Jan: 0.70% (prev 0.00%)

Spanish Total Mortgage Lending (YoY) Dec: 27.10% (prev 16.80%)

Portuguese Consumer Confidence Index Feb: -21.2 (prev -21.9)

Swiss Industrial Output WDA (YoY) Q4: 2.70% (prev -0.40%)

Swedish Trade Balance (SEK) Jan: 3.5B (est 4.0B; prev 0.4B)

Swedish Household Lending (YoY) Jan: 6.10% (est 6.20%; prev 6.10%)

Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI Feb: 48.7 (prev 48.5)

Dutch Unemployment Rate Jan: 7.20% (prev 8.10%)

 

GOVERNMENT/ CENTRAL BANK NEWS & COMMENTARY

Greece Will Need EUR20 Bln In Credits In July - FAZ

Greek Central Bank Warns Fragile Economic Recovery Faces Risks

German Conservatives Back Greek Aid Extension In Test Vote

Bundesbank's Dombret: To Push For Higher Interest Rate As Soon As Possible

Fed's Bullard: Jobless Rate Below 5% In Second Half

French FinMin Michel Sapin Sees 'Optimal' EU-Paris Deficit Talks ? Report

BoJ's Ishida Says Shouldn't Ease Just To Hit Price Goal At A Set Timing

 

GOVERNMENT/ BOND NEWS & COMMENTARY

US Treasury Yields Slip Further After Yellen's Second Day

Portugal 10-Year Bond Yield Falls Below 2%

Germany?s Negative-Yield Universe Extends As ECB Prepares To Buy

Italy Sold EUR2.5 Bln In 2019 Bonds (avg yield 0.56%; bid cover 1.59)

Italy Sold EUR4.5 Bln In 2025 Bonds (avg yield 1.36; bid cover 1.53)

Italy Sold EUR1.75 Bln In Floating 2020 Bonds (avg yield 0.62%; bid cover 1.59)

Riksbank Buys SEK3 Bln Of 5-Year Govt Bonds (avg yield 0.098%)

Outgoing Allianz CEO Blasts ECB Bond Buy Plan

 

EQUITY NEWS & COMMENTARY

US Stocks: Wall Street Trades Sideways Ahead Of CPI, Durable-Goods Data

European Stocks Rise As German Unemployment Falls

Standard Chartered Gains, But RBS Drops In London Trade

Asian Stocks Higher On Earnings, China Factory Output

RBS To Exit 10 Countries, Cut Back In Asia, US

Deutsche Telekom Loss Narrowed By Strong US

Allianz Cautious As Profit Disappoints

StanChart To Name Winters As Next Chief

 

CURRENCY/ COMMODITY NEWS & COMMENTARY

Dollar Little Changed Vs. Rivals, US Data Ahead

Greeks Withdrew Nearly EUR13 Bln As Tension Grew

Gold Puts Janet Yellen In Rearview Mirror, Moves Higher

Copper Surges To 6-Week High As China Holiday Ends

IEA?s Birol: $70-80/ Barrel Oil Prices Will Allow L-Term Non-OPEC Supply Growth

Oil Rises Above $62 After Saudi Comments On Demand

Russia's Gazprom Says Ready To Compromise On Gas For East Ukraine

 

EMERGING MARKET NEWS & COMMENTARY

Emerging Markets-Oil Rally Lifts Rouble To Six-Week High

Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi Says Oil Markets Are Settling

China PBOC Lowers Funding Lending Rate To Small Businesses