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These top investing minds see stormy seas ahead over the next year

Everett Collection
The Perfect Storm.

Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride — that leaves us right back where we started.

That’s the consensus among the leading economists, investors, and analysts at the annual gathering known as “Camp Kotok,” who take part in an annual friendly wager on where various economic indicators will wind up in a year.

This August, the story could be summed up in one word, according to Stu Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial and a longtime coordinator of the survey: “Sideways.”

The 30-person panel’s median consensus forecast is for a 2.0% yearly gain in the consumer price index, for example, close to the most recent reading of 2.3%. The unemployment rate will fall two ticks to 4.7%. GDP, the panel guessed, will rise only 1.8% between the second quarter of this year and next.

More from Camp Kotok: Does America need to be made great again?

Megan Greene, chief economist for Manulife Asset Management

“It speaks to the level of uncertainty,” said Megan Greene, chief economist for Manulife Asset Management and a first-time Camp attendee. “People aren’t bearish or bullish, just not sure.”

Sources: Median Prediction Actual Prediction
Camp Kotok, FactSet 7/31/2017 7/29/2016 % Change
10-yr. Treasury 1.70% 1.45% 17.24%
Oil WTI CLU6, +0.54% $49 $41.60 17.79%
S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% 2150 2173.6 -1.09%
Gold GCZ6, +0.03% $1,450 $1,357.50 6.81%
Euro EURUSD, +0.1523% $1.03 $1.12 -7.83%

Anyone looking for a narrative within the median forecasts might be stumped. With oil strengthening, shouldn’t the stock...


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