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We Should Probably Still Sell EUR/USD on a Rally

EUR/USD made a November low at 1.0674 last week and has been consolidating since as we can see in the 4H chart.

EUR/USD 4H Chart 11/15

(click to enlarge)

So far, the 4H chart still looks very bearish. 1) Price is below the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs). 2) Price is under a falling trendline and has been making low highs and lower lows (except in the current consolidation). 3) The RSI is still under 60, reflecting maintenance of the prevailing bearish momentum.

No, the current consolidation still has some upside risk, but we should probably consider selling when price gets to the 1.0850 area, where EUR/USD will be challenged by the falling trendline. Also if the RSI tags 60 and turns down, we should consider a subsequent bearish attempt back towards the 1.0675-1.07 lows with risk of extending the prevailing downtrend.

Even if price cracks the falling trendline, we should give EUR/USD some elbow space up to 1.09. However, a break above 1.09 might reflect a different animal then a short-term consolidation. It might be part of a larger medium-term consolidation that could take weeks to complete. That means there would still be upside risk towards 1.10 and 1.11.

If the market does indeed remain bearish, the low on the year around 1.0460 up to the 1.05 handle would be in sight.