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USD/CAD back to a key trendline support

USD/CAD started the year bearish but neutralized the bearish trend by May. Since May, the currency pair has been consolidating in a choppy manner. We can see an ascending triangle turning into more of a wedge pattern. What ever the structure, the rising trendline support has been clear. This week, price is back at that trendline, threatening to break lower into a bearish continuation scenario.

USD/CAD Daily Chart 8/12


(click to enlarge)

Bulls fail; bears advance:
- First of all, it should be noted that the bullish outlook was suppressed. 
- The RSI never made it to 70, which shows lack of bullish momentum. 
- Price never pushed above the 200-day simple moving average (SMAs) , which means USD/CAD maintained bearish bias. 
- It should also be noted that since June, USD/CAD has been making higher highs and higher lows. The price action at the end of July and throughout August so far broke that pattern - there is a lower high and a lower low now.

Bearish scenario:
- Along with the rising trendline support, the 100-day and 50-day SMAs are also being tested.
- A break below 1.2950 could signal a bearish continuation scenario.
- Below 1.2950, the 1.2860-1.2865 area might also offer support. 
- I would feel better if a subsequent rally gets faded at 1.30. 
- The bearish scenario really opens up for me if price can break below 1.2860.

If price fails to break below 1.2950, and climbs back above 1.30, then I think the market is neutral, with a slight bullish bias because price would have held above a rising trendline.