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EUR/USD Trading Between Key Trendlines

Okay, what's going on with the EUR/USD? Well, it is showing a lot of resilience. Since the early August low of 1.0848, the pair rallied to 1.1711 before retreating sharply last week. It ended the week coming back and tagging 1.1155.

EUR/USD 4H Chart 8/30
(click to enlarge)

Price action still looks heavy, has broken the 50-period simple moving average (SMA), and is threatening the 100-period SMA. If price starts the week falling below 1.1150, we would see a break down of the 100-period SMA and a rising trendline. That might neutralize the bullish outlook, though the bearish outlook is still limited in the short-term to 1.10. From a technical standpoint, we need more price action after this couple of choppy weeks to make an assessment for the pair in the short to medium-term. I feel that in the longer-term such as an outlook for the rest of the year, the EUR/USD is still bearish, or at least bearish-neutral. I believe there is more a chance that the EUR/USD will break below 1.08 the climb back above 1.20. 

Now, if price is able to hold above 1.1150, and push back above 1.13, we should probably assess EUR/USD as bullish with upside back to at least the 1.16-1.17 area. If this happens, it would be interesting how the market reacts in this area. If price action is rejected again, it would confirm my longer, medium-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD.