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The Last Time Greece Did This, Its Stock Market Crashed 70%

It was April 2014 and global equity markets were breathing a sigh of relief as Greece just returned to the international bond markets "proof that the country was recovering from the crisis." 18 months later, Greek stocks had crashed 70%, yields had exploded and bailout 3 (or 4) was necessary. Whichbrings us to today... WSJ reports that Greece Eyes Bond Sale Amid Optimism Over Debt Deal.

Here is the Boston Globe from April 11 2014:

Greece’s return to the financial markets with a five-year bond offering Thursday was met with overwhelming demand from investors, and government officials hailed the sale as proof that the country was recovering from a wrenching five-year economic crisis.


Greece raised $4.2 billion on an offering that attracted more than $27.77 billion in orders, the government said. The majority of buyers were foreign pension and investment funds, which received a 4.75 percent interest rate on the bonds.


The relatively low rate signaled a degree of renewed confidence in a country that only a few years ago was on the verge of exiting the 18-nation eurozone and saw the rates on its 10-year bonds exceed 30 percent. Ireland and Portugal, which also received international bailouts amid the crisis, returned to financial markets earlier this year.




The prime minister also thanked lawmakers in the governing coalition for having backed tough austerity measures despite their political cost, and Greek citizens for their sacrifices.


“Today, Greeks feel greater faith in themselves and in the future,” he said.

And then this happened...


And yields spiked from around 5 to over 17...

But Greek bond yields have collapsed to post-crisis lows in the last weeks as everyone and their pet rabbit is sure the bailout is a done deal..

Which brings us to today...

As Greek assets rally on optimism of a deal to restructure the country’s crushing debt, Greek government officials are planning a bond issue - the first by the country in three years - possibly as soon as July or September.


Earlier this month, Athens reached a deal with international creditors on fresh austerity measures that would unlock the next payment in its €86 billion bailout program ($93.48 billion).


But the bigger goal is a deal to restructure its €315 billion debt, possibly by stretching out maturities, capping interest rates and postponing interest payments.


The combination of a debt deal, Greece’s inclusion in the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program and a successful re-entry to capital markets could mark a turning point for the country’s economy, already nine years in depression.

Looks like Greek Creditors are about to find another set of greater fools...