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Gold Breaks August Support Line after FOMC Minutes

Today, the main market mover was the FOMC meeting minutes, which the market felt was hawkish. It revealed that voting members of the fed are looking to end QE, and start preparing for a rate hike. Fed members are impressed with Q2 growth, especially in the labor market, and noted that these improvements can warrant a rate hike ahead of schedule, which was previously mid-2015.

The USD gained across the board. Gold (XAU/USD) priced in the US Dollar, fell today. It was already bearish since falling last week, but it was holding above the August rising trendline. Today, after the FOMC minutes, traders faded gold below this trendline, signaling a bearish outlook, or at least a loss of the bullish outlook.

Gold 4H Chart 8/21

While the bearish move today is backed by a key fundamental factor (hawkish FOMC mintues), it is not clear if this is enough to turn gold bearish. It is already bearish in the short-term, but the medium-term outlook has been sideways in 2014, as the daily chart shows price forming a triangle. 

The market is likely going to meet the triangle support in the 1270-1280 area. We should expect some support here. But if price breaks below 1270, it will break the triangle support, and the support from April-May consolidation. This scenario opens up the 1240 support pivot than the 1182.35 low on the year.

A break below 1270 should also drag the daily RSI below 40, which would be a sign that the bullish momentum from the June rally is finally loss. 

If price can hold above 1270, a rally above 1300 can revive a bullish outlook, especially if the daily RSI holds above 40, given some elbow space in the near-term.


Gold Daily Chart 8/21