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Natty Gas Price Boosted by both Supply and Demand

US Natural Gas price jumped yesterday. I trade the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), which is an ETF that tracks natty gas price. 

UNG Daily Chart 4/20

(click to enlarge)

Bloomberg News cited 2 factors:
1) Bloomberg: LNG exports trim 35B cf from U.S. natural gas glut  (seeking alpha)
2) U.S. Gas Jumps by Most Since December on Warmer Weather Outlook (bloomberg)

These 2 reasons cover both supply and demand. We can see the reaction yesterday as price jumped above 7.00. This price action also breaks above a month-long consolidation range roughly between 6.28 and 7.00. 

It looks like UNG survived the first test of its price bottom attempt. I has already broken above a falling trendline. Now it is showing a bullish victory after a consolidation. 

If UNG is indeed bullish now, price should hold above 6.50, and preferable above 6.65. I would still like to see the RSI in the daily chart push above 60 and price push above the 100-day simple moving average. Those would be additional evidence of a bullish reversal at work, which has the 9.00-9.50 area in sight by the end of the summer.