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Navient (NAVI) to Report Q1 Earnings: What to Expect?

Navient Corporation NAVI is scheduled to report first-quarter 2016 results on Tuesday, Apr 19, after the market closes.

The Wilmington, DE-based loan management, servicing and asset recovery company’s fourth-quarter 2015 core earnings had missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results reflected reduced net interest income and higher expenses. However, on a positive note, the quarter had experienced an increase in non-interest income and lower provision for credit losses.

Will Navient fail to post an earnings beat this quarter too? Let’s see how things have shaped up.

Factors to Influence Q1 Results

Rapid growth in the student loans market has turned it into one of the biggest consumer debt markets of the nation, after mortgages. Though conditions in the financial markets have been challenging lately, Navient’s continued efforts to acquire student loan portfolios, both Federally Guaranteed Student Loans (FFELP) as well as Private Education Loans, should lend some support to quarterly results.

Also, the company’s efforts to grow asset recovery revenues, with focus beyond student loan platforms, should support revenues at its business services segment. The company is likely to continue benefitting from its previous acquisitions including that of health care payments company, Xtend Healthcare, in Oct 2015.

However, revenues in this segment continue to face threat from the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013. The act, which became effective in Jul 2014, called for lowering the fees payable to guaranty agencies for recovering defaulted FFELP loans.

The U.S. student loan industry is currently under heightened regulatory scrutiny over alleged anti-consumer practices. Navient, which services over $300 billion in student loans for more than 12 million customers, is under regulatory claims and litigation burden owing to its practices in handling loans. Hence, the quarter might reflect higher related legal reserves.

Additionally, Navient’s results are likely to be affected by margin compression and a potentially lower recovery rate.

Navient’s activities during the quarter were inadequate to win analysts’ confidence. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter remained stable at 43 cents per share over the last seven days.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Navient is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the upcoming release. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, this is not the case here, as elaborated below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Navient is +0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 43 cents.

Zacks Rank: Navient’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we also need to have a positive ESP to be confident of an earnings surprise call.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some stocks worth considering, as according to our model they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

The Earnings ESP for The Blackstone Group L.P. BX is +21.62% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. It is scheduled to release first-quarter results on Apr 21.

PrivateBancorp, Inc. PVTB has an Earnings ESP of +1.75% and a Zacks Rank #3. It is expected to report first-quarter results on Apr 21.

People's United Financial Inc. PBCT has an Earnings ESP of +4.76% and a Zacks Rank #3. It is slated to report first-quarter results on Apr 21.

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